BUSINESSWEEK7 Hours Ago

Good News on Gun Violence Could Shape Gun-Control Debate

by Paul M. Barrett

Good news on gun violence reductions could undercut renewed demands for tougher gun control.

A Justice Department report slated for official release in July shows that firearm-related homicides have declined 39 percent since 1993, while nonfatal gun crimes dropped an even more impressive 69 percent. This unmistakably positive news could take some of the impetus out of a Democratic push for tougher federal gun restrictions.

The report, entitled "Firearm Violence, 1993-2011," and dated July 5, 2013, was made available online by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, an arm of the Justice Department. Neither agency explained the timing of the release.

"The number of U.S. homicides has been falling for two decades, but America has become no less violent."

The report does not address any implications it might have for the gun-control debate. The findings are consistent with those of other recent studies. Surfacing less than a month after the Senate failed to pass President Obama's modest gun-control initiative, however, the data could dilute the sense of urgency surrounding Democratic attempts to revive the curbs.

The most striking finding was the long-term decline in non-fatal gun crimes. In response to earlier reports about the falling firearm homicide and overall homicide rates, some analysts have argued that these trends mask persistent and possibly even rising levels of violence. According to this theory, improvements in emergency trauma care are saving many potential gun violence victims and turning them into gun violence survivors.

The Wall Street Journal led one such dispatch: "The number of U.S. homicides has been falling for two decades, but America has become no less violent." The Journaladded: "More people in the U.S. are getting shot, but doctors have gotten better at patching them up. Improved medical care doesn't account for the entire decline in homicides but experts say it is a major factor."

The latest Justice Department report showing nonfatal firearm crime decreasing so much more drastically than gun homicide would seem to undermine the notion that more people are getting shot, but doctors are simply getting better at "patching them up."

Some of the more specific Justice Department findings include:

+ Firearm-related  homicides fell from 18,253 in 1993 to 11,101 in 2011.

+ Non-fatal gun crimes declined from 1.5 million in 1993 to 467,300 in 2011.

+ During this period, firearm violence accounted for 70 percent of all homicides.

+ About 70 percent to 80 percent of gun homicides and 90 percent of non-fatal gun victimizations were committed with a handgun, as opposed to a rifle or shotgun.

+ The number of homicides at schools declined over time, from an average of 29 per year in the 1990s to an average of 20 per year in the 2000s. (This calculation did not include the December 2012 massacre of 20 students and six educators at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.)