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Israel's open war with Obama

Israel's open war with Obama

In open defiance of the Obama administration, a senior Israeli official (could it be the Prime Minister?) said on Saturday night that Israel will campaign unrelentingly against any agreement with Iran that leaves the Mullahcracy with either a uranium enrichment capability or the ability to keep developing a plutonium bomb.

"Some important people inside the P5+1 share our perspective and are anxious about the direction this is going," the official said.

The P5+1 negotiation with Iran includes the US, Russia, China, France, Britain and Germany. Talks between Iran and six world powers on curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions ended without an agreement early Sunday morning as a split emerged between France and the other powers, diplomats said.

Israeli officials have been saying for months that France has been towing the toughest line against Iran's nuclear program inside the P5+1, more so than the Americans.

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said it was not clear the delegations would succeed in nailing down an acceptable interim deal that would begin to defuse fears of a stealthy Iranian advance towards nuclear arms capability.

"As I speak to you, I cannot say there is any certainty that we can conclude," Fabius told France Inter radio, saying Paris could not accept a "sucker's deal."

Fabius said the security concerns of Israel and some Arab neighbors of Iran still "have to be taken into account."

That's all well and good. But suppose the US, Russia, China, Britain and Germany all reach an agreement with Iran, but France does not. Where are we then? Is there an agreement? More importantly, do the sanctions get lifted? You bet they do. And Germany, which is Iran's largest trading partner, and China, which is Iran's largest oil buyer, are probably chomping at the bit for that to happen.

Meanwhile, Israel has had it with Obama.

Following these statements, US President Barack Obama called Netanyahu on Friday afternoon to discuss the talks, following what the White House had called Netanyahu's "premature" criticism.

"The president provided the prime minister with an update on negotiations in Geneva and underscored his strong commitment to preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which is the aim of the ongoing negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran," the White House said in a statement.

Nevertheless, on Saturday – after the conversation with Obama – a senior Israeli official said that "the more the details accumulate" regarding the Geneva talks, "the greater the puzzlement at the haste to sign an agreement that is so bad for the world."

The official said that the proposed deal would leave a military nuclear capability in Iran's hands that would enable it to "break out" and build a nuclear bomb within a matter of weeks.

The official said that Israel completely rejects the Geneva proposal that does not shut down all Iranian uranium enrichment, a move demanded even by previous UN Security Council resolutions, and would not be obligated by it.

The official said Israel supported a diplomatic solution that would bring an end to Iran's nuclear weapons program, meaning it must dismantle its centrifuges, transfer out of the country its enriched uranium, and stop all work on its heavy water reactor at Arak.

"There is no reason to give the right to enrich uranium to a country that blatantly violates Security Council resolutions, participates in the slaughter of civilians in Syria, and carries out a campaign of terrorism around the world," the official said.

What can Israel do? Israeli officials think they can oppose Obama in Congress.

Israel's sharp criticism of the deal could make it more difficult for Obama to sell any eventual deal to US lawmakers, who have been far from compliant regarding White House proposals on Syria and numerous domestic issues.

US lawmakers have threatened to slap new sanctions on Iraneven as the talks are taking place, despite White House appeals to hold off while negotiations continue.

Eric Cantor, majority leader in the Republican-controlled House, said a Geneva deal would fall short if it did not entirely halt Iran's nuclear program.

Well, yeah. But who's going to enforce those sanctions? Suppose Obama gets up and says "I reached a deal with Iran and I'm not enforcing those sanctions." Under the US Court of Appeals ruling inZivotofsky v. Clinton, there would be nothing Congress can do. And by the time you get either Zivotofsky or a new case involving Iran to the Supreme Court, Iran would be nuclear.

And while a deal has not yet been reached, keep in mind that any weakening of the sanctions could lead to their demise.

Israeli officials said that any sanctions relief without Iran dismantling its nuclear weapons capabilities was like a "small hole in a tire."

Even a small hole makes the tire go flat, one official said. He added that there were countries in Europe, eastern Europe and Asia who were very keen on doing business with Iran, and who were just waiting for a signal that the sanctions regime is weakening to make their move back into the Iranian market.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Binyamin Netanyahu, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, John Kerry

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Israel's open war with Obama
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John Hames