Daily on Defense: New Russian nuclear threat, Stoltenberg calls on Congress to pass Ukraine aid, NATO defense spending soars, Trump repeats threat to NATO laggards

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ADVERTISEMENT TURNER'S CRYPTIC WARNING: The news of a dire new threat broke at 11:30 a.m. with a cryptic news release blasted out by House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH). "Today, the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence has made available to all members of Congress information concerning a serious national security threat," the two-sentence release began. "I am requesting that President Biden declassify all information relating to this threat so that Congress, the Administration, and our allies can openly discuss the actions necessary to respond to this threat." And with that, the race was on to find out what "serious national security threat" he was talking about. At the White House, national security adviser Jake Sullivan was tight-lipped while expressing consternation that Turner had gone public about the threat, which is based on highly classified intelligence.  "I am a bit surprised that Congressman Turner came out publicly today in advance of a meeting on the books for me to go sit with him alongside our intelligence and defense professionals [Thursday]. That’s his choice to do that," Sullivan said. "I’m not in a position to say anything further from this podium at this time." Sullivan offered to brief the so-called Gang of Eight, but with the Senate out of session, his meeting is expected to be with the two leaders of the House Intelligence Committee along with the speaker and minority leader of the House. TOP HOUSE MEMBERS ATTENDING NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT BRIEFING AMID ALARMING TURNER MESSAGE: SULLIVAN THE BIG SECRET: Because everything leaks in Washington once reporters get a hot tip, it wasn't long before the news media were able to piece together from sources what had alarmed Turner.  The highly classified intelligence relates Russia's effort to develop anti-satellite weapons that would employ a nuclear detonation in space to destroy, disable, and disrupt the constellation of U.S. satellites used for everything from military communications and GPS guidance to commercial bank transactions.  Russia has been known to be working on anti-satellite weapons for years. In 2021, it tested a missile that took out an old Soviet-era satellite as a test of a hit-to-kill method. But detonating a nuclear warhead in space could blind dozens of satellites in one fell swoop, which is what sent shivers through the national security community. "The Senate Intelligence Committee has the intelligence in question, and has been rigorously tracking this issue from the start. We continue to take this matter seriously and are discussing an appropriate response with the administration," said Mark Warner (D-VA) and Marco Rubio (R-FL), chairman and vice chairman of the committee. “In the meantime, we must be cautious about potentially disclosing sources and methods that may be key to preserving a range of options for U.S. action." US FEARS RUSSIA PREPARING TO PUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN SPACE EVERYBODY CALM DOWN: While vague reports sparked concern, the Biden administration was also worried that all the loose talk would not only reveal to Moscow how much Washington knows about its secret program but also sow needless panic. "I can assure you that our country is safe," Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon's chief spokesman, said on MSNBC while providing no details. "Your Department of Defense every day around the world is focused on protecting our nation, and today is no different." "People should not panic. That is unequivocal. People should not panic,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT), ranking Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, told reporters on Capitol Hill. "Turner is right to highlight this issue, but it’s so sensitive that he is right now not publicly discussing it. I don’t want people thinking that Martians are landing or that your Wednesday is going to be ruined, but it is something that the Congress and the administration does need to address in the medium to long run." House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was similarly sanguine. "I want to assure the American people there is no need for public alarm. We are going to work together to address this matter, as we do all sensitive matters that are classified." "Beyond that, I am not at liberty to disclose classified information and really can’t say much more," Johnson added. "But we just want to assure everyone steady hands are at the wheel, we are working on it, and there is no need for alarm." CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER Good Thursday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre's Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn't work, shoot us an email and we'll add you to our list. And be sure to follow me on Threads and/or on X @jamiejmcintyre CLICK HERE TO SIGN UP OR READ BACK ISSUES OF DAILY ON DEFENSE NOTE TO READERS: Daily on Defense will not publish Monday, Feb. 19, as we observe the federal Presidents Day holiday. We'll be back in your inbox and online Tuesday, Feb. 20.  HAPPENING TODAY, NATO DEFENSE MINISTERS MEET: With U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin participating virtually as he recovers from a bladder problem, NATO defense ministers are gathered in Brussels, with Ukraine on the top of their agenda. At a news conference at NATO Headquarters today, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine is suffering from a critical shortage of ammunition and called for allies to do more. "To ensure that Ukraine gets the weapons, the supplies, the ammunitions they need, we need to ramp up production," Stoltenberg said, noting that over the last month European NATO members signed contracts for 10 billion euros worth of new munitions to come from different sectors of the trans-Atlantic defense industry. "I welcome the decision by the European Union to allocate 50 billion euros to Ukraine, and I expect the U.S. Congress to agree [to] a package of continued support to Ukraine. Because supporting Ukraine is not charity. Supporting Ukraine is an investment in our own security." But he said that even with Europe doing more, U.S. support is critical: "We see the impact already of the fact that the U.S. has not been able to make a decision." "I expect … the House of Representatives will agree to continued support to Ukraine because if we allow President Putin to win, it will not only be bad for the Ukrainians, a tragedy for the Ukrainians, but it will also be dangerous for us. It will make the world even more dangerous for us and leave us more vulnerable." "We see that our support is making a difference on the battlefield every day. Just yesterday, the Ukrainians were able to strike successfully a Russian naval ship, and this demonstrates the skills and the competence of Ukrainian armed forces, also in conducting deep strikes behind the Russian lines," Stoltenberg said. UKRAINE CLAIMS ANOTHER KILL IN RUSSIA'S BLACK SEA FLEET NATO DEFENSE SPENDING UP SHARPLY: Stoltenberg also announced the latest numbers on defense spending by NATO members on their own militaries, a vital benchmark in measuring the capabilities of the alliance. In 2014, NATO set a target for all members of the alliance to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense, with at least 20% of it going for weapons, equipment, and materiel. "We now have historic numbers when it comes to defense investments," Stoltenberg said, citing what he called an "unprecedented rise" in what NATO nations are spending on their own defenses. "Last year, we saw an 11% real increase in defense spending across Europe and Canada. This year, we expect 18 allies to meet the target of spending 2% of GDP on defense." NATO did not name the 13 countries that will miss this year's deadline, but Stoltenberg insisted that with European allies spending dramatically more, NATO is making real progress. "We are on the right track. … We still have a way to go," he said. "All allies promised to spend 2% of GDP on defense, and 2% is a minimum." "In 2024, NATO allies in Europe will invest a combined total of $380 billion in defense. For the first time, this amounts to 2% of their combined GDP,” Stoltenberg said. NATO'S EUROPEANS TO SET SPENDING RECORD TRUMP STICKS BY HIS THREAT: At a campaign rally in South Carolina yesterday, former President Donald Trump did not back away from his threat not to come to the aid of any NATO nation that doesn’t meet his criteria for defense spending. "Look, if they're not going to pay, we're not going to protect, OK?" he said, while not repeating his most incendiary comment from last Saturday’s rally encouraging Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" with countries on his "delinquent" list. "I think President Trump has a disdain for NATO. He doesn’t understand it. He doesn’t understand the importance to our own security," former Trump Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on CNN, where he is now a paid contributor. Esper is among several people who worked closely with Trump who believe he is serious about withdrawing from NATO despite a law recently passed by Congress barring any president from leaving the alliance without a two-thirds vote in Congress. "There’s so many other things a president can do to undermine the alliance," he said. "I think one of the first things he’ll do is move to cut off all funding for Ukraine. The next thing he’ll probably do is to begin withdrawing troops from key countries unless they meet a spending commitment," Esper said. "He could declare that he will not support a NATO ally just like he did. Because that is all in the power of the executive and the commander in chief. And we could withdraw from exercises. We could withdraw ourselves from NATO formations." TRUMP IN TALKS WITH TULSI GABBARD ABOUT FUTURE OF DEFENSE DEPARTMENT THE RUNDOWN:  Washington Examiner: US fears Russia preparing to put nuclear weapons in space Washington Examiner: Top House members attending national security threat briefing amid alarming Turner message: Sullivan Washington Examiner: NATO's Europeans to set spending record Washington Examiner: McConnell chides 'America First' as Trump takes harder line on Ukraine Washington Examiner: Trump in talks with Tulsi Gabbard about future of Defense Department Washington Examiner: Ukraine claims another kill in Russia's Black Sea Fleet Washington Examiner: Border Patrol agents 'devastated and demoralized' after politicians fail to deliver migrant crisis solution Washington Examiner: ICE circulates plan to release thousands of detainees to ease deficit Washington Examiner: What comes next for Mayorkas following House impeachment? Washington Examiner: House impeachment managers prepare for starring roles in Mayorkas Senate trial Washington Examiner: Homeland Security Chairman Mark Green won't run for reelection: 'I want to go out on top' Washington Examiner: Democrat to be sworn in to George Santos seat at end of February Washington Examiner: Editorial: No more delays: House should aid Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan AP: Donald Trump stands by remarks about not defending NATO members after backlash New York Times: Ukraine Claims Russia Used New Hypersonic Missile for First Time CNN: Inside The U.S. Navy's Frontline Fight Against The Houthis In The Red Sea Breaking Defense: Munitions Stockpile Issue Persists 2 Years Into Ukraine Conflict: Marine Corps General AP: Israeli forces storm main hospital in southern Gaza after prolonged standoff, local officials say Defense News: Marines' Underwater Missile-Delivery Drone Faces Key Test This Month USNI News: Navy Will Stand Up Lethal Drone Unit Later This Year, First Replicator USVs Picked Military.com: The Navy SEAL Mission Is Shifting From Raids To Supporting The Service, Leader Says Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall's Message to Airmen and Guardians on Re-Optimization: 'Don't Sit Still' Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: 'Unthinkable' That Congress Could Fail to Pass Budget, Ukraine Aid Aviation Week: US Air Force Plans to Use New, Quick Start Acquisition Authority Defense Scoop: Cropsey: Air Force C2 Modernization 'Hamstrung' by Lack of Fiscal 2024 Budget Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lockheed Anticipates Stable F-35 Production for Next Five Years Inside Defense: INDOPACOM Seeks Autonomous ‘Stare’ to Deter China in the Taiwan Strait Space News: Startup Pitches AI Tool to Prevent Pentagon Procurement Blunders Air & Space Forces Magazine: PACAF, Allies Plan for More Complex, Large-Scale Exercises in the Indo-Pacific Breaking Defense: New Space Force 'Combat Squadrons' to Allow Tailored Deployment, Alleviate 'Exhaustion': Officials Air Force Times: Space Force Mulls 8-Year Active-Duty Enlistments for New Recruits Air & Space Forces Magazine: CMSAF Bass Pushes For First Targeted Pay Raise In 17 Years Air & Space Forces Magazine: SDA Launches Missile Tracking Satellites; All of 'Tranche 0' Now in Orbit THE CALENDAR:  THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 15 10 a.m. 2218 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: "Outpacing China: Expediting the Fielding of Innovation," with testimony from William LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment; Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; and Doug Beck, director, Defense Innovation Unit https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings/outpacing-china 10 a.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: "Behind the Scenes: How the Biden Administration Failed to Enforce the Doha Agreement," with testimony from Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. State Department special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/behind-the-scenes 12 p.m. 1744 R St. NW — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. in-person and virtual discussion: “The Global Dimension of Ukraine’s Cyber Defense,” with U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for Cyberspace and Digital Policy Nathaniel Fick; Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Jen Easterly; Margaret Brennan, CBS foreign affairs correspondent and moderator of Face the Nation; and Christopher Schroeder, vice chairman of the GMFUS Board of Trustees https://www.gmfus.org/event/global-dimension-ukraines-cyber-defense 1 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace discussion: “Should Ukraine Have Kept Nuclear Weapons? Deconstructing the Decision to Disarm,” with Mariana Budjeryn, senior research associate at Harvard University’s Project on Managing the Atom and author of Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/15/should-ukraine-have-kept-nuclear-weapons POSTPONED: 2 p.m. 2172 Rayburn — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: "Going Nuclear on Rosatom: Ending Global Dependence on Putin's Nuclear Energy Sector," with testimony from David Albright, president, Institute for Science and International Security; Anthony Ruggiero, senior director and senior fellow, Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, Foundation for Defense of Democracies; Theresa Sabonis-Helf, concentration chairwoman for science, technology, and international affairs, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing/going-nuclear-on-rosatom 2:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace and State Department virtual discussion: “The Indo-Pacific Strategy in Action: Commemorating the Second Anniversary," with Mira Rapp-Hooper, special assistant to the president and senior director for East Asia and Oceana at the National Security Council; Donald Lu, assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affair; Daniel Kritenbrink, assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs; Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security affairs Ely Ratner; Lise Grande, USIP president and CEO; and Vikram Singh, USIP senior adviser for South Asia https://www.usip.org/events/indo-pacific-strategy 7 p.m. — New America and Arizona State University Future Security Initiative virtual discussion: “Swift Justice: A Taliban Courtroom in Session,” with Victor Blue, New America fellow, photojournalist, and writer focusing on the legacy of armed conflict https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/events FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 16 4 a.m. Munich, Germany — Munich Security Conference runs from Feb. 16 to Feb. 18 at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich https://securityconference.org/en/msc-2024 7:45 a.m. 11493 Sunset Hills Rd., Reston, Virginia — Government Executive Media Group Washington Technology discussion: “Inside the New National Defense Industrial Strategy,” with Danielle Miller, acting deputy assistant defense secretary for industrial base resilience, and Nick Wakeman, editor in chief of Washington Technology https://events.washingtontechnology.com/defense-industrial-strategy/ 10 a.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW — U.S. Institute of Peace Institute of Current World Affairs, and American Purpose discussion: “Life After Putin: Potential Scenarios for a Post-Authoritarian Russia,” with Sergei Guriev, professor of economics at Sciences Po Paris University; Mikhail Zygar, founding editor in chief of Dozhd; Miriam Lanskoy, senior director for Russia and Eurasia at the National Endowment for Democracy; and Jorgan Andrews, former deputy assistant secretary of state for international narcotics and law enforcement affairs and USIP fellow https://www.usip.org/events/life-after-putin 10 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “U.S. Policy and the Israel-Hamas War,” with State Department Special Envoy for Middle East Humanitarian Issues David Satterfield https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/16/u.s.-policy-and-israel-hamas-war 12 p.m. 555 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies discussion: on “U.S.-Korea Relations,” with Rep. Ami Bera (D-CA) https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 21 7 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd, Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army's "Coffee Series" discussion with Army Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/sma-weimer 2 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: "The Middle East, Russia's war in Ukraine two years on and the state of American foreign policy," with, former defense secretary and CIA director Robert Gates https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live/2024/02/21/robert-gates THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 22 2:30 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress virtual discussion: "The War in Ukraine After Two Years," with retired Lt. Gen. David Barno, professor of practice and senior fellow, Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Nora Bensahel, visiting professor of strategic studies, Merrill Center of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies; Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace; and Joshua Huminski, director, Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs https://www.addevent.com/event TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 27 3 p.m. — Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center virtual forum: "Nevada National Security Site: a Premier National Security Asset and its NNSA Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Stewardship Mission," with retired Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, president, Mission Support and Test Services; David Funk, vice president, enhanced capabilities for subcritical experiments, Mission Support and Test Services; and Melissa Hunt, director, Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation for Global Security, Mission Support and Test Services https://www.eventbrite.com/e/nnsa-nevada-national-security-site QUOTE OF THE DAY "Every U.S. president in living memory has urged other NATO nations to spend more on our collective defense, but there is only one president who really deserves credit for really boosting European spending, not Trump, but President Putin." Retired Adm. James Stavridis, former supreme allied commander of NATO, in a post on X Access the Daily on Defense archives here